Without US Aid, Ukraine Will Face Armageddon-Part 2

In Part 1 of this article, we discussed far-right politicians’ objections to providing more assistance to Ukraine. In this part, we will analyze the likely consequences for that country if the US Congress does not pass the $60 billion supplemental package for Ukraine.

Ukraine is running low on military supplies and desperately needs another round of assistance from America.

There are three key programs for supporting Ukraine’s military. Under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), the president can send equipment from US stockpiles to Ukraine. Because this equipment already exists, it arrives quickly.

The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) provides funds for services to Ukraine, including training, buying weapons on the world market, and enabling Ukraine to contract for production of new equipment. The third element is funding to replace the equipment supplied under the PDA.

Unfortunately, US deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine peaked in early 2023. Deliveries have fallen by about two-thirds since the summer of 2023, and by June 2024, they will have plummeted by more than 90%, according to Mark Cancian, Senior Analyst, Center for Strategic and International Studies The Impact of Ending Military Aid to Ukraine: Gradual Decline, Then Collapse.

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies

Russia Is Outgunning Ukraine

The lack of supplies has also made it harder for Ukrainians forces to hold onto the territory they are defending. Both sides are relying heavily on artillery to pummel the enemy. However, Russia now has an advantage, because Putin has put the Russian economy on a war footing and cranked up the production of munitions.

During its counteroffensive last year, Ukrainian forces were firing 6,000 shells a day. Now, the troops are down to 2,000 shells daily, which forces them to make tough decisions about which targets to attack.

Meanwhile, the Russians have maintained a rate of 6,000, according to the New York Times.

Ukrainian troops are therefore constantly under fire, which causes more casualties and damages morale. The lack of firepower reduces the Ukrainians’ ability to harass Russian troops and fend off their attacks.

Air Defenses Are Critical

Until recently the Kyiv government could shoot down most of the drones and missiles Russia was sending toward Ukrainian cities. But Ukraine has relied heavily on air defense systems, including the highly capable Patriot system, that the US has provided. Unless America replenishes those supplies — and quickly — Ukraine will be less able to protect its citizens. Civilian casualties, already high, could soar.

In addition, without adequate air defense systems, Ukraine’s utilities and other critical infrastructure would be more vulnerable to Russian attacks. Even now, the percentage of Russian missiles being intercepted has declined as Ukraine’s air defenses have weakened.

The role of air defenses is particularly crucial because Ukraine has a very small air force. The US has consistently refused to furnish Ukraine with American fighter planes, although it has recently allowed its NATO allies to provide F-16s to the Ukrainian air force.

The Administration’s rationale seems to be two-fold. The Ukrainians might use the planes to attack targets in Russia, which, US officials fear, could provoke Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons. Planes are very expensive, so it would be more efficient to provide Ukraine with more units of less costly equipment.

In this civilian observer’s opinion, the Biden Administration has made a strategic mistake on this issue.

Ukrainian soldiers in the field/Getty Images

Ukraine Could Collapse

Without new US aid, the situation will deteriorate rapidly, because “the Europeans are not likely to make up the difference”, Mr. Cancian noted. We should bear in mind that the latest EU assistance program cannot be used for military expenditures.

So the prospects for Ukraine will be grim if Congress does not pass the $60 billion supplemental program soon. It takes time to restock military depots. Producing and delivering new weapons can take up to two years. Ukraine can’t simply order new cannons from Amazon.

“By spring, the Ukrainians will not be able to launch local counterattacks”, Mr. Cancian predicted, adding “the Russians will break through in some places and the Ukrainians won’t be able to patch up the front”.

And by this summer, Mr. Cancian estimated, Ukraine’s army will struggle to fend off Russian attacks. At some point, Ukraine’s front will collapse.

“It is not likely that Russia will get the whole country in one fell swoop”, he said, “but Russia will take big chunks as the Ukrainians’ capabilities decline”. A defeated, weak Ukraine would have to accept “a harsh peace”, Mr. Cancian fears.

Russia’s Next Targets: Baltics And Poland

After taking a victory lap, Vladimir Putin would probably spend a few years rebuilding the Russian army, which has sustained massive losses in Ukraine. Then, the Russians would head toward the Baltic States or Poland.

Sound far-fetched? The leaders of these countries don’t think so. They expect Russia to move against them if it subjugates Ukraine. As one Baltic legislator remarked recently, according to the New York Times For NATO and Europe A Russian Invasion Is No Longer Unthinkable:

“Every neighbor of Russia has good reason to be worried”, said Kalev Storiescu, a member of Estonia’s Parliament. “Russia behaves literally as a predator”, he added, “it has the taste of blood”.